THE YOVICH REPORT
AUGUST 2011
| NZX 50 3253 |
|
ALL ORDS 4323 |
|
NZDAUD 80.35 |
|
NZDUSD 83.72 |
|
The past week has been chaotic on world markets with the Dow Jones Index having four 400 point swings for the first time in its 115 year history. The markets have been driven by Standard & Poors downgrading of USA credit rating and the concerns about growing debt crisis in Europe.
The Dow was down 9.45% for the month, S&P 200 7.18%, Nikkei 9.69% Footsie down 10.3%, Shanghai 6.2% and NZX50 6.65%. The NZ market plummeted along with the rest last week but then investors became more relaxed and did not bail out at any price.
Recent Announcements:
- Freightways 2011 profit $29.9m compared with $17m last year.
- NZX Limited 2011 profit $4.51m compared with $5.68m last year.
- Abano profit for 2011 year $11.5m.
- Tui Reserves have been downgraded from 50.5m barrels to between 40m and 42m barrels. This has had a negative impact on Australian Worldwide Exploration, NZ Oil & Gas and Pan Pacific Petroleum..
- Methven profit guidance for March 2012 year is $9m compared with $4.7m last year.
- Pumpkin Patch is closing its 20 stores in the USA.
- Kathmandu sales for July year were up 24.5% at $30.6m. EBIT for year is expected to be between $63m and $65m compared with $47.9m last year.
- Rakon has opened its factory in China which will more than double its production.
- NZ Refining processing fees for May and June were $43m and total fees for 6 months were $123.55m compared with $108.519m last year.
- Heartlands 2011 profit is expected to be between $6 and $8m. The forecast tax paid 2012 profit for the combined business including PGG Wrightson Finance is expected to be in the range of $20m to $24m.
We enclose our updated Disclosure Statements and covering letter.
FINANCIAL ADVISER LET Thu Aug 11 2011 08-35-54.828.pdf
Adam Lynch Primary Disclosure v1.pdf
Adam Lynch Secondary Disclosure v1.pdf
Walter Yovich Primary Disclosure v1.pdf
Walter Yovich Secondary Disclosure v1 _2_.pdf
Please contact us if you have any queries. We will want to meet with you to update account records.
Financial Advisors: Wally Yovich &
Adam Lynch
Short Term Rates
Call - UDC over $5,000 3% over $100,000 3.25%
3 Months - Marac 5%
9 Months - Marac 6%
Fixed Interest – Capital Notes
The following is an indication of current yields
| Company |
Coupon Rate
|
Maturity Rate
|
Current Yield
|
Payable
|
| ANZ National |
9.66%
|
Perpetual
|
7.7%
|
April, October
|
| BNZ Income |
9.89%
|
Perpetual
|
8.59%
|
March, June, Sept, Dec
|
| Fletcher Building |
8.9%
|
15/03/2013
|
6.7%
|
February, August
|
| GPG Finance |
8.3%
|
15/11/2012
|
8.25%
|
Jan, May, July, Oct
|
| Infratil |
7.75%
|
15/11/2012
|
6.9%
|
Feb, May, Aug, Nov
|
| Marac Finance |
10.5%
|
15/07/2013
|
8.75%
|
Jan, April, July, October
|
| Nuplex |
9.3%
|
15/09/2012
|
7.8%
|
Feb, May, Aug, Nov
|
| Prime Infrastructure |
9%
|
30/11/2012
|
11%
|
May, November
|
Listed Property Investments
|
Company New Zealand
|
Price
|
PIE Cash Yield
|
Distribution
|
| AMP NZ Office Ltd |
0.84
|
6.5%
|
February, May, September, November
|
| Argosy Property Trust |
0.78
|
8.93%
|
March, June, October, December
|
| Goodman Property Trust |
0.96
|
8.1%
|
March, June, September, December
|
| Kiwi Income Property |
0.99
|
7.03%
|
July, December
|
| NPT Limited |
0.49
|
9.12%
|
January, April, July, October
|
| Property for Industry |
1.16
|
6.20%
|
February, May, August, November
|
| Vital Health Property Trust |
1.09
|
7.07%
|
March, June, September, December
|
High Yielding Stocks – New Zealand
| Company |
Price
|
Yield
|
Distribution
|
| Briscoes |
1.39
|
9.26%
|
June, November
|
| Colonial Motor |
2.31
|
9.89%
|
March, October
|
| Goodman Fielder |
1.10 |
13%
|
April, October |
| Hallensteins |
3.50
|
12.65%
|
April, December
|
| Kingfish |
0.91
|
10.90%
|
April, October
|
| Methven |
1.49
|
8.70%
|
June, December
|
| Pumpkin Patch |
0.98
|
11.66%
|
June, December
|
| Restaurant Brands |
2.35 |
10.33%
|
June, November |
| Seeka Kiwifruit |
1.88 |
16.72%
|
April, October
|
| Team Talk |
2.12
|
13.48%
|
April, September
|
| Tower |
1.42
|
9.99%
|
January, July
|
| Turners Auction |
1.36
|
17.86%
|
April, September
|
| Warehouse |
3.36 |
12.33%
|
April, November |
Mainfreight has reported an outstanding financial result for the first three months of the 2012 year. The net surplus after taxation and abnormals was $14.22m an increase of 107% on the previous years result of $6.82m. Total revenue for the period increased by 43% from $315.25m to $449.86m.
Business performance improved in New Zealand, Australia, USA and Europe with only Asia being behind the previous years result. The domestic freight divisions in New Zealand, Australia, USA and Europe were the stand out performers. The improved financial performance is expected to continue throughout the remainder of the financial year.
Current price is $10.05. The dividend is 20c fully imputed giving a gross dividend yield of 2.9%. Forecast dividend for 2012 is 26.5c fully imputed.
Steel & Tube tax paid profit for June year was $17m compared with $15.7m last year. The dividend for the year is 15c fully imputed compared with 8.5c last year. The gross yield is 8.64% on the current price of $2.48.
Tanami Gold has achieved its target of 40,000oz of gold for the June year from its Western Tanami operation with total production of 40542oz. It is aiming to reduce its operating costs through trialling a new mining method, larger trucks and installation of a new core crusher. Forecast 2011 profit is $5.3m, 2012 $11m. 2013 $67.7m and 2014 $134.9m. Current price is A0.98c and target price is A$1.95.
Galaxy Resources - Lithium is the essential component for powering the world's fast expanding fleet of hybrid and electric cars. Galaxy is soon to become one ot the world's leading producers of lithium. There has recently been a 20% global lithium price increase. By 2012 its Mt Catlin mine will be the world's second largest hard rock producer of lithium and through the development of its value adding lithium carbonate plant the company will be the largest and lowest cost lithium producer in China. Lithium concentrate and lithium carbonate materials are forecast to be in short supply against high future demand due to advances in long life batteries and sophisticated electronics including mobile phones and computers.
Galaxy has positioned itself to meet this lithium future demand by not only mining the lithium but by downstream processing to supply lithium carbonate to the lucrative Asian market.
The Company raised A$120m capital in April and May. There are 323m shares on issue. Current price is 0.65c. The high for the year has been A$1.80 and the low A0.61c.
Australian Stocks
The following stocks are some of the stocks trading at a discount to what is considered their fair value:
| Company |
Fair Value |
Current Price
|
Discount to Fair Value |
| Alumina |
3.30
|
1.82
|
44.84%
|
| Gross Dividend Yield 3.76% |
|
Payable March, September |
|
| |
|
|
|
| ANZ Bank |
29.70
|
19.92
|
32.92%
|
| Gross Dividend Yield 6.93% |
|
Payable July, December |
|
| |
|
|
|
| APN News |
2.15
|
0.90c
|
58.13%
|
| Gross Dividend Yield 13.33% |
|
Payable March, September |
|
| |
|
|
|
| Billabong |
8.00
|
5.06
|
36.75%
|
| Gross Dividend Yield 6.72% |
|
Payable April, October |
|
| |
|
|
|
| BHP Billiton |
56.70
|
38.21
|
32.61%
|
| Gross Dividend Yield 2% |
|
Payable March, September |
|
| |
|
|
|
| Energy Resources |
16.70
|
3.61
|
78.38%
|
| Gross Dividend Yield 2% |
|
Payable February, August |
|
| |
|
|
|
| AMP |
6.30
|
3.98
|
36.82%
|
| Gross Dividend Yield 7.50% |
|
Payable April, October |
|
| |
|
|
|
| Kingsgate Consolidated |
14.85
|
8.60
|
42.08%
|
| Gross Dividend Yield 4% |
|
Payable March, September |
|
| |
|
|
|
| QBE Insurance |
23.40
|
13.19
|
43.63%
|
| Gross Dividend Yield 9.7% |
|
Payable April, September |
|
| |
|
|
|
| Westfield |
10.20
|
7.55
|
25.98%
|
| Gross Dividend Yield 7.3% |
|
Payable February, August |
|
| |
|
|
|
| Woodside Petroleum |
69.40
|
37.05
|
46.61%
|
| Gross Dividend Yield 3% |
|
Payable April, September |
|
|
Disclosure Statement Available
|
