Yovich & Co Market Update - 9 March 2026.

The NZX 50 declined 1.51% over the week to close at 13,519.35, with the local market giving back some of the strong gains recorded the previous week as global risk sentiment weakened into month-end. Air New Zealand was particularly impacted, as investors assessed the potential implications for oil and gas prices. Ongoing inflation concerns also weighed on markets, pushing bond yields higher amid growing expectations that central banks, including the Reserve Bank of New Zealand, may need to raise interest rates further to contain rising consumer prices.

Australia’s All Ordinaries declined 3.86% over the week, with broad-based weakness across the market and sentiment deteriorating further into Friday, capping off a difficult week for investors as concerns intensified around the implications of the conflict involving Iran, and the sharp rise in oil prices, for global growth and inflation.

China’s Shanghai Composite eased 0.94% over the week, with the index remaining relatively resilient and trading within a narrower range than the sharper moves seen across Western markets. Asian markets finished mixed on Friday, with sentiment supported to some extent by Beijing’s continued commitment to deepen investment in high-tech industries. Following the announcement of a conservative 2026 GDP growth target of 4.5% to 5.0%, China signalled further support for sectors such as artificial intelligence, semiconductors, and biotechnology. Despite this, broader regional sentiment remained cautious as escalating conflict in the Middle East raised concerns around the outlook for global trade, inflation, and investment.

The FTSE 100 fell 6.08% to 10,284.75, marking a sharp weekly pullback and reversing much of the recent momentum as global defensive positioning increased. House prices registered an annual growth of 1.3% in February, following a 1.1% rise in January, according to data from the mortgage lender Halifax. This was the strongest growth in four months and exceeded economists' forecast of 0.9%.

US shares had a difficult week. The Dow fell 3.11% and the Nasdaq Composite declined 1.24% to 22,387.68, as investors de-risked amid rising oil prices and a weaker US jobs update, with reporting noting it was Wall Street’s worst week since October 2025. A disappointing payrolls report intensified worries that the U.S. economy could be cooling just as geopolitical tensions in the Middle East push energy costs sharply higher.

Source: Iress

Investment News         

Costco Wholesale (COST) – Q2 FY26 result

Costco delivered another strong quarter, with total revenue up 9.2% to US$69.6b and net sales up 9.1% to US$68.2b for the 12 weeks to 15 Feb 2026. Membership fees (the recurring subscription income that underpins Costco’s model) rose to US$1.36b, while net income increased to US$2.04b and EPS lifted to US$4.58. The company continued to benefit from solid traffic and member value positioning, even as consumers remain cost-conscious. Bulls see Costco as one of the strongest global retailers, with sticky membership income and scale advantages; bears point to the stock’s high valuation and the risk that growth expectations are already priced in.

Share Price Reaction: The market reaction was muted, reflecting a “strong but expected” result for Costco.

Current Share Price: $998.1, Consensus Target Price: $1,064.97, Forecasted Gross Dividend Yield: 0.55%.

Target (TGT.NYS) – Q4 & FY2025 result + FY26 outlook

Target’s Q4 showed continued sales pressure, but earnings and guidance were better than feared. Q4 net sales were US$30.45b (-1.5%), with GAAP EPS of US$2.30 and adjusted EPS of US$2.44, broadly in line with what the company had been guiding to. For the full year, net sales were US$104.78b (-1.7%) and adjusted EPS was US$7.57. Management guided to a return to growth in FY26, expecting 2% net sales growth (helped by a small increase in comparable sales plus new stores and other revenue) and FY26 EPS guidance of US$7.50 to US$8.50. Bulls like the clearer path back to growth and Target’s strong dividend; bears highlight ongoing competition and that sales trends still need to prove they’ve turned sustainably.
Share Price Reaction: Shares jumped approximately 6% to 7% on the day as investors welcomed the outlook and confidence around a growth “reset.”

Current Share Price: $120.79, Consensus Target Price: $123.13, Forecasted Gross Dividend Yield: 3.74%.

Broadcom (AVGO.NAS – Q1 FY26 result

Broadcom produced a standout quarter, driven by demand for AI infrastructure chips and networking gear. Revenue rose 29% to US$19.31b and adjusted EPS was US$2.05, ahead of expectations. Management highlighted AI-related semiconductor revenue of US$8.4b (+106%) and guided to Q2 revenue of US$22b, implying another strong step-up, with expected AI revenue of US$10.7b next quarter. Broadcom also sought to reassure the market that its infrastructure software business remains healthy and announced a US$10b share buyback, reinforcing confidence in cash generation. Bulls see Broadcom as a core “AI plumbing” beneficiary (custom AI chips and networking) with growing capital returns; bears point to customer concentration and that AI expectations are now very high.

Share Price Reaction: Shares moved higher around 4% to 5% after-hours as the revenue beat, guidance and buyback outweighed broader tech volatility.

Current Share Price: $330.48, Consensus Target Price: $467.62, Forecasted Gross Dividend Yield: 0.79%.

Michael Hill International (MHJ.NZ / MHJ.ASX) – HY26 result

Michael Hill delivered a strong HY26 performance (half year to 28 Dec 2025), with group sales up 3.0% to $371.0m and comparable EBIT (underlying operating profit) up 28.6% to $31.0m. Same-store sales increased  circa 3.8%, with management pointing to improved trading execution, disciplined cost control and better inventory settings. Bulls see improving earnings quality and operating leverage as demand normalises; bears note jewellery remains a discretionary category and margins can be sensitive to discounting and currency/gold-price movements.

Share Price Reaction: The stock traded higher following the update, reflecting improved profit momentum and better operational execution.

Current Share Price: $0.51, Consensus Target Price: $0.80, Forecasted Gross Dividend Yield: 2.33%.

Upcoming Dividends: 10th March to 10th April.

Source: Iress

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